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Malloy Leads Foley By 1 Point In New Quinnipiac Poll

FAIRFIELD COUNTY, Conn. -- Gov. Dannel Malloy and Republican challenger Tom Foley are locked in a repeat of the 2010 down-to-the-wire governor's race with more voters growing to dislike both candidates, according to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday. 

Tom Foley, left, and Dannel Malloy are locked in a nearly dead heat in the race for governor.

Tom Foley, left, and Dannel Malloy are locked in a nearly dead heat in the race for governor.

Photo Credit: File

Malloy holds 43 percent of likely voters to Foley's 42 percent, with 9 percent for independent candidate Joe Visconti, the poll said. 

"The race for Connecticut governor looks very much like it will go down to the wire -- again," said Douglas Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac University poll. 

"Republican Tom Foley has to be concerned that this is the first likely voter poll in which Gov. Dannel Malloy has a numerical edge, even though it's razor-thin." 

This compares to a 43 percent vs. 43 percent dead heat among likely voters in an Oct. 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University poll. 

With Visconti out of the race, it's a tie at 45 percent, the poll said.

With 13 days until the election, the gender gap is wide in the three-way race as Malloy leads Foley 51 percent vs. 32 percent among women, with 9 percent for Visconti, while Foley leads Malloy 53 percent vs. 34 percent among men, with 9 percent for Visconti. 

Independent voters are divided with 38 percent for Foley, 36 percent for Malloy and 16 percent for Visconti. Malloy tops Foley among Democrats, 81 percent vs. 11 percent, with 4 percent for Visconti. Foley beats Malloy 85 percent vs. 6 percent among Republicans, with 6 percent for Visconti. 

"As expected, Democrats and Republicans are coming home with both Malloy and Foley winning at least 80 percent of their bases, but the independent voters are really up for grabs, with independent Joe Visconti now taking 16 percent of the independent vote," Schwartz said. 

"The gender gap is now a huge 38 points, with men going to Foley by 19 points and women for Malloy by 19 points." 

Likely voters give both major party candidates negative favorability ratings:

Malloy gets a negative 42 percent vs. 50 percent favorability, virtually unchanged from Oct. 8; Foley gets a negative 40 percent vs. 46 percent favorability, down from his split 41 percent vs. 39 percent score two weeks ago.

"The other bad news for Tom Foley is that his favorability rating continues to tumble," Schwartz said. "For the first time, more voters have a negative view of him than a positive view. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him. 

"The good news for Foley is that Malloy's favorability is actually slightly worse. 

"The Connecticut race recently was rated the most negative in the nation, and voters are giving a thumbs down to both major party candidates. With voters not liking either candidate very much, some voters could just choose the lesser of two evils. The dislike of Malloy and Foley helps explain why independent candidate Joe Visconti is holding onto 9 percent, at least for now." 

From Oct. 14 to 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,010 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. 

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